A tropical wave with a chance to grow is 1,400 miles southeast of St. Croix and moving this way fast, but how much rain and wind it will bring when it gets here is up in the air, National Weather Service meteorologist Jose Alamo said at 8 p.m. Sunday.
It depends on how close it comes and how strong it is. It could be a wave when it reaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the National Hurricane Center is betting on Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Chantal.
“Even if it is an open wave and tracks to the south, the increase in moisture will affect the U.S. Virgin Islands, particularly St. Croix,” Alamo said.
At 8 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 70 percent chance of reaching depression or storm status within the next 48 hours. If it becomes a storm, watches and warnings will be posted for areas expected to be impacted.
The system is heading north-northwest at 25 mph, a rapid speed that won’t give residents much time to prepare.
“Keep a close eye,” he said.
The wave grew substantially during Sunday and is showing signs of organization. Alamo said that once it reaches depression or storm status, the National Hurricane Center will provide more guidance as to its track.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on tap to investigate the system Monday afternoon.
While this is a tad early for tropical systems to develop, in 1996 Hurricane Bertha hit on July 8 and 9 as a Category I hurricane. The Federal Emergency Management Agency declared it a major disaster for the territory.
Residents got a taste of bad weather Sunday when a tropical wave blew across the territory, dropping .3 inches of rain between midnight and 8 p.m. at Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas, .1 inches at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix, and .77 inches at Weather Station Zephyr at Ajax Peak, St. John.
“It rained significantly more on St. John,” Alamo said, adding that once the rain reached St. John, it headed north-northwest and bypassed St. Thomas.
Alamo expects the weather to get better by Monday afternoon, with scattered showers during the day on Tuesday.
“Tuesday night is bad,” he said.
