Hurricane Joyce turned tentative and unpredictable Thursday morning, confounding computer forecast models as it made its way west toward the Caribbean.
At 5 a.m. Thursday, the center of Joyce was located near 12.5 degrees north latitude, 42.7 degrees west longitude, still about 1,135 miles east of the Windward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is moving to the west near 12 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds near 90 miles per hour with some higher gusts.
Not much change in strength or direction is forecast for the next couple of days, but after that, things get hazy, according to forecaster James Franklin.
"The fate of Joyce is expected to turn on how close an approach is made by the large upper low to the northeast of the hurricane," Franklin said. The low would bring high-level winds to hamper storm development, as predicted by one computer model. But another model, he said, "is more ominous, in that it both keeps the upper low with its attendant (wind) shear farther away from Joyce and ultimately tracks the cyclone well into the Caribbean."
Franklin said Thursday it's impossible to know which scenario will come to pass. He said a surveillance aircraft may be scheduled to fly ahead of the storm over the weekend to gather more definitive information.
Advisories are being issued every six hours, with the next update at 11 a.m.
