Oct. 2, 2007 — While no tropical storms, hurricanes or even very close calls have threatened the Virgin Islands so far this hurricane season, the territory is not off the hook.
"We expect October-November to be very active," said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane forecaster, according to a news release issued Tuesday.
He and his colleague, William Gray, called for four named storms to form during October and November. This is down one from their Sept. 4 prediction.
The forecasters think two of those four predicted for September and October will reach hurricane strength. One is expected to become a major hurricane, with winds of 111 mph or more.
"Typically, the end of the Atlantic basin hurricane season is governed by rising values of vertical wind shear," Gray said. "We expect La Nina conditions through this fall. La Nina conditions tend to reduce levels of vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, and therefore, the end of the Atlantic basin hurricane will likely be extended this year."
Steve Parris, acting director at the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency, urged residents not to let down their guard.
"It only takes one," he said. "We should keep ourselves prepared for this type of event."
In recent years the Virgin Islands has seen several storms during October and November.
Tropical Storm Jose, which had been a hurricane, hit on Oct. 21, 1999, doing minimal damage. Hurricane Lenny was a late-season storm that arrived from an unexpected direction, the west, on Nov. 17, 1999. This was the hurricane that flipped a huge buoy into the middle of Strand Street in Frederiksted. Tropical Storm Klaus visited Nov. 6 and 7, 1984.
A list provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration includes several other late-season hurricanes since 1515. They include the Oct. 29, 1867, hurricane, which was followed by the infamous Nov. 18, 1867, earthquake and tsunami. That hurricane cost 1,000 people their lives in the Virgin Islands.
As of Oct. 1, a total of 13 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes have developed during this hurricane season.
"August had somewhat above-average activity — about 130 percent of average — while September had about average activity — about 92 percent of average," Klotzbach said.
September witnessed the formation of eight named storms, tying a record for most named storm formations during the month. However, most storms were short-lived and not particularly intense.
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