Key tourism statistics indicate a strong finish to the 2025 season, officials said Friday. Uncertainty about 2026, however, loomed as external factors, many instigated by the federal government, could stymie gains.
Robust visitor spending, increased cruise ship and aircraft arrivals, more hotel rooms becoming available, and other factors have put the territory’s tourism sector on steady footing, Alani Henneman, assistant commissioner of tourism, told policymakers at the 2025 Revenue Estimating Conference.
Economic forecasts for the U.S. mainland from November 2024 indicated a solid foundation, which generally translates to healthy tourism numbers, Henneman said. She cited optimistic reports in October 2024 from Delta Air Lines and Royal Caribbean Group.
Some of that hopefulness deflated in January with downward swings in financial markets and backlash over controversial White House policies.
“Travel bans, tariffs, and the overall perception of the U.S. can impact the USVI’s tourism industry,” she said.
“We are skeptical about 2026.”
Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. mused that a ban on travel to some countries might benefit the Virgin Islands as tourists would have fewer Caribbean options. That is not the sort of travel ban reportedly being considered by the State Department, however. The proposed ban would stop some Caribbean neighbors from coming to the American Caribbean.
President Donald Trump has reportedly suggested dramatically reducing access to U.S. visas for people from Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St. Lucia, and St. Kitts and Nevis unless those countries complied with unspecified demands. An anonymous U.S. State Department official replied to questions from the Source with a message neither confirming nor denying the plans.
The Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority issued a statement late Wednesday emphasizing there was no change in visa policy and island officials haven’t been contacted by Washington counterparts on the subject.
Lt. Gov. Tregenza Roach said in discussions with the British Virgin Islands about the charter industry, it was important to understand the British overseas territory’s desire to maximize revenues. The islands get limited help from the UK, he said. He urged officials at the conference to find new ways of generating revenue in the U.S. Virgin Islands and to take heed should federal funds diminish.
“Britain, as a colonizer, only takes; it doesn’t give,” Roach said. “We may be in a similar boat of having to support ourselves in a different way.”
Bryan said the Virgin Islands has been the beneficiary of programs Trump has sought to dismantle, such as diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility.
“I think the Virgin Islands has had the benefit of equity and inclusion in a large way because for 100,000 people to be getting $23 billion of taxpayer’s money is an incredible feat. And we’re proud of that. And we have to protect it. We have to make sure we’re doing the things to eliminate corruption and create transparency, to create efficiencies, and most of all to get these things built for our people,” he said.
Domestically, real income growth, modest inflation, the USVI’s no-passport-needed status, and tax cut extensions on the mainland could drive more visitors to the territory, Henneman said. Those factors could be undercut by a softening labor market, inequity, immigration restrictions, and inflation because of tariffs.
Internationally, pent-up demand for travel to the USVI could be tripped up by trade wars, visa processing changes, and a growing sentiment of unease about U.S. policy.
More than 38 percent of all foreigners flying into the U.S. Virgin Islands come from Canada. Canadians make up 53.7 percent of all the territory’s foreign cruise line visitors.
Many Canadians have reportedly been boycotting American products since President Donald Trump suggested steep tariffs on Canadian goods, called then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau the governor of Canada and referred to Canada as both nasty and the 51st state that he claimed the U.S. subsidized with $200 billion annually. On Thursday, mainland media reported widespread vandalism in Ontario of Tesla vehicles. The act mirrors similar attacks on the company headed by Elon Musk, who Trump appointed to run the new Department of Government Efficiency.
Canadian leaders — some of whom have called the rhetoric an act of war — have responded with tariffs of their own on American goods. The Economic Times reported Friday that Canadian tourism to the United States had dropped by 40 percent. Tourism industry insiders in New York told ABC News Thursday they were deeply worried.
If vacationers don’t boycott the territory, cruise arrivals could hit a high of 1.9 million in 2026, Henneman said. Roughly 1.8 million passengers were projected to visit the USVI in 2025, 90,000 more than 2024 — 980,000 at the West Indian Company Dock, 580,000 at the Austin “Babe” Monsanto Marine Terminal, and 200,000 at St. Croix’s Ann E Abrahamson Marine Facility.
Air capacity into the territory broke records in 2024 with 908,721 passengers flying in — well above 2023’s 782,022, she said. Compared to 2023, air capacity to St. Thomas is up more than 18 percent and to St. Croix a whopping 56.5 percent, Henneman said. Through February, air arrivals in 2025 versus 2024 were down 2 percent.
Offering a diversity of accommodations, the territory attracts a wide range of visitors across the social-economic spectrum. Visitors spent an average of $744 a day — well above the Caribbean average — in 2024. While cruise passengers polled by the Tourism Department had an average household income of $100,000 to $149,000, tourists arriving by air were more likely to have an annual household income greater than $250,000, according to Henneman.
In 2024, the territory had an estimated 3,286 hotel rooms to rent — and 5,769 additional rooms from Airbnb, VRBO, and similar operations. The territory had 1,022 timeshare units, 900 rental villas, and more than 250 overnight charter yacht lodgings.
Keeping track of these not-hotel rentals was important, Bryan said, not just from a tax-revenue collection standpoint, but to make sure the consumer experience was what the territory hoped to present.
“When you look at what’s happening on the ground, you’re seeing tourists coming from weird places like Hospital Ground and Savan, walking the streets. And you’re like, how did you get up here — because we have Airbnb capacity now; because they don’t know where they’re checking in to. Which brings us to all our concerns about our economy and what we need to be doing in terms of how we direct tourism — what their experience is going to be,” Bryan said.
The average overnight accommodation spent per party was more than $3,459, she said. The hotel occupancy rate dropped in January 2025 compared with the same time in 2024 — from 76.6 percent a year ago to 62 percent in the first month of 2025.
The Virgin Islands forecasts taking in $33,670,570 in hotel tax revenue in fiscal year 2025, up slightly from $33,169,281 in 2024. Next year, however, was forecast to dip slightly to $32,084,732. Henneman said the forward-looking 2026 numbers were derived by looking at historical trends and may change as new data becomes available.
