An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent Monday evening investigating Tropical Storm Dorian, and data from the plane suggest the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated. Based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds, the intensity is set at 45 knots, the National Hurricane Center reported.
On its present track, the center of Dorian will make its closest point of approach to the U.S. Virgin Islands at 8 a.m. Wednesday, passing 100 miles southwest of St. Croix. At that time, the storm system will be a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 miles per hour.
There are no watches or warnings posted for the Virgin Islands, and the winds associated with Dorian are not forecast to affect the Virgin Islands.
But the U.S. Coast Guard has taken no chances. On Monday afternoon, it announced it was closing all seaports in the St. Croix district, only at 8 p.m. Monday, due to inclement weather expected as Dorian passes the territory. The closure does not affect the seaports in the St. Thomas/St. John district, which will remain open, the Coast Guard said. The Virgin Islands Port Authority urged all mariners to adhere to the directives of the U.S. Coast Guard and to exercise safety precautions while traveling on the sea as the storm passes.
The center of Dorian moved just south of the southern coast of Barbados late Monday afternoon, and tropical-storm-force winds were reported over that island. The storm shows a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of three to eight inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of two to four inches, with maximum totals of six inches are possible across St. Croix and Puerto Rico.