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Five Named Storms in September, Say Klotzbach and Gray

Sept. 2, 2008 — With the mosquitoes still buzzing from the passage of what turned into Fay and the territory still getting wet from Tropical Storm Hanna's outer bands, Colorado State University hurricane gurus Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Tuesday came out with their prediction for September.
They think September will bring above-average activity with five named storms. Four of the five storms will become hurricanes. Two will reach major status with winds over 111 mph. Overall, the forecast team expects activity at about 190 percent of the September average.
"We expect the month of September to be quite active," said Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast. "We have seen some of the lowest pressure readings on record in the tropical Atlantic during August. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain at above-average values. A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active September."
In addition, they continue to observe neutral El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific, so they don't anticipate that an El Nino will be detrimental to September's activity.
June and July were very active, with three named storms forming during the two-month period: Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Bertha became the longest-lived July storm on record, while Hurricane Dolly made landfall in south Texas as a Category 2 hurricane.
August had slightly above-average activity, largely because of Hurricane Gustav, which became a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean last week.
Tropical Depression Gustav is still dumping rain on Louisiana. Hanna, now a tropical storm but expected to regain hurricane status, is now threatening the East Coast of the United States. Tropical Storm Ike looks like it will pass north of the territory, but it's too soon to say for certain. And Tropical Storm Josephine, located way out in the Atlantic, got a name Tuesday morning.
"Be prepared for the worst," said Mark Walters, director of the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency, on Tuesday.
It looks like Ike will pass north of the territory, Walters said, but he pointed out that a shift of a few degrees can change the picture.
With these storms on the horizon and the height of hurricane season in mid-September fast approaching, Walters urged residents to have a minimum of three days' worth of supplies on hand.
"I would recommend even longer than that," he said.
Walters urged residents to clean up anything around their yards that could become airborne. Now is the time to do it because storms can develop quickly, leaving no time for doing cleanups, he said.
When the Colorado State team updated its seasonal prediction Aug. 5, Klotzbach and Gray expected a total of 17 named storms during the 2008 hurricane season. They think nine will become hurricanes, with five reaching intense hurricane status with winds of 111 mph or more. The team will issue a prediction for October 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity Oct. 1.
For more on the prediction, visit http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu.
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Sept. 2, 2008 -- With the mosquitoes still buzzing from the passage of what turned into Fay and the territory still getting wet from Tropical Storm Hanna's outer bands, Colorado State University hurricane gurus Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Tuesday came out with their prediction for September.
They think September will bring above-average activity with five named storms. Four of the five storms will become hurricanes. Two will reach major status with winds over 111 mph. Overall, the forecast team expects activity at about 190 percent of the September average.
"We expect the month of September to be quite active," said Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast. "We have seen some of the lowest pressure readings on record in the tropical Atlantic during August. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain at above-average values. A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active September."
In addition, they continue to observe neutral El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific, so they don't anticipate that an El Nino will be detrimental to September's activity.
June and July were very active, with three named storms forming during the two-month period: Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Bertha became the longest-lived July storm on record, while Hurricane Dolly made landfall in south Texas as a Category 2 hurricane.
August had slightly above-average activity, largely because of Hurricane Gustav, which became a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean last week.
Tropical Depression Gustav is still dumping rain on Louisiana. Hanna, now a tropical storm but expected to regain hurricane status, is now threatening the East Coast of the United States. Tropical Storm Ike looks like it will pass north of the territory, but it's too soon to say for certain. And Tropical Storm Josephine, located way out in the Atlantic, got a name Tuesday morning.
"Be prepared for the worst," said Mark Walters, director of the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency, on Tuesday.
It looks like Ike will pass north of the territory, Walters said, but he pointed out that a shift of a few degrees can change the picture.
With these storms on the horizon and the height of hurricane season in mid-September fast approaching, Walters urged residents to have a minimum of three days' worth of supplies on hand.
"I would recommend even longer than that," he said.
Walters urged residents to clean up anything around their yards that could become airborne. Now is the time to do it because storms can develop quickly, leaving no time for doing cleanups, he said.
When the Colorado State team updated its seasonal prediction Aug. 5, Klotzbach and Gray expected a total of 17 named storms during the 2008 hurricane season. They think nine will become hurricanes, with five reaching intense hurricane status with winds of 111 mph or more. The team will issue a prediction for October 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity Oct. 1.
For more on the prediction, visit http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu.
Back Talk Share your reaction to this news with other Source readers. Please include headline, your name and city and state/country or island where you reside.