A tropical wave located 500 miles east of the Windward Islands could bring rainy weather to the Virgin Islands starting Friday and continuing through the weekend, meteorologist Jose Alamo at the National Weather Service in San Juan said Wednesday.

“There is a large amount of uncertainty. Different models say different things,” Alamo said.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the tropical wave a 30 percent chance of developing into something stronger in the next 48 hours, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall occurring in the Lesser Antilles. However, Alamo said, it’s not likely it will develop right over the Virgin Islands.

“There’s such strong shear aloft, it’s not going to allow it to develop,” Alamo said.

And he said most of the convection associated with the tropical wave is away from the islands.

While the tropical wave is currently moving to the west northwest at around 15 mph, Alamo said it looks like the direction will shift to the northwest.

Hurricane season runs until Nov. 30. Even though the mid-September peak has passed, storms have developed throughout October and November.