Saturday marks the traditional start of the hurricane season and Elton Lewis, director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management System, issued a reminder to residents to be prepared for a very active season.
"This forecast should not be met with a half-hearted response," Lewis wrote in the warning issued Friday. "We must all take it very seriously and commit to prepare. In previous years, we have had a few false alarms. It has also been a few years since we experienced hurricanes of catastrophic proportions, such as Hugo and Marilyn. Yet, as Virgin Islanders, we have learned not to let our guard down."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May issued its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.
For the six-month hurricane season, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher,) of which seven to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Earlier this year, the Colorado State University forecasting team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray predicted an above-average season with 18 named storms. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The Klotzbach and Gray prediction calls for about 175 percent of the average hurricane season.
The long-term average from 1981 through 2010 is a dozen named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Klotzbach and Gray predicted a 61 percent chance of a hurricane landfall in the Caribbean, while the long-term average for the last century is 42 percent.
Lewis said recent weather catastrophes should serve as a reminder to Virgin Islanders to expect the unexpected.
"We all saw the devastation and destruction from the tornado in Moore, Okla., which left a trail of destruction and misery for many families and businesses," Lewis said.
"We know that hurricanes are unpredictable and no one can prevent them because they are acts of nature. However, we have learned that we can lessen their impact by preparing in advance to safeguard life and property as best we can. Let us continue to be urgent about this and not stress ourselves out by starting preparations at the last minute," Lewis said.
There are steps residents should take to prepare, Lewis said, including the following:
– Get a hurricane preparedness kit or a go-bag with copies of important documents in a waterproof container; drinking water, nonperishable food, clothing and essential medication; extra car and house keys; flash light, first-aid kit, comfortable shoes, child-care supplies, etc.;
– Remember that seniors, animals and the disabled have their own special needs;
– Listen to the radio and to weather reports. VITEMA will inform the public of any impending storms as the information becomes available. Heed the warnings and commit to prepare.
Coping will be much easier if residents have planned in advance, Lewis said.
"As the 2013 Hurricane Season draws near, we at VITEMA want to reinforce our strong partnership with you and our dedicated emergency management team. An effective response to any disaster depends on unified and coordinated teamwork," Lewis said.
Lewis said residents can register to receive VI Alert public safety messages through text message, email and fax by going online to www.VITEMA.gov.
Klotzbach and Gray noted that the north Atlantic, where most Caribbean-bound hurricanes form, has already shown warmer-than-usual temperatures.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,” they noted this spring.
El Niño is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions that make hurricanes less likely to form.
