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Forecasters Lower 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

Twenty years ago, Hurricane Hugo bore down on St. Croix as a Category 4 storm. (NOAA image)With the first two months of hurricane season already over and not one storm on the books, Colorado State University hurricane scientists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray came out Tuesday with some more good news. They cut their June prediction by one when it comes to named storms and hurricanes expected to form during the 2009 hurricane season. The number of major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater remains the same.

The team now anticipates 10 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin. They predict that four will become hurricanes, and of those four, they expect two to develop into major hurricanes.

In June, they thought the season would see 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Long-term averages stand at 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

They’re chalking the good news up to Intensifying El Nino conditions.

"El Nino events tend to be associated with increased levels of vertical wind shear and decreased levels of Atlantic hurricane activity," Gray said in a press release.

Those El Nino conditions should mitigate the warmer sea water temperatures and sea surface pressure typically found during hurricane season, Klotzbach said.

While Gray and Klotzbach have for many years predicted the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coast, for the first time this year, they’re making that prediction for the Caribbean and Central America. They put it at 37 percent, lower than the 42 percent long-term average.

The hurricane forecast team predicts hurricane season activity in 2009 will be 85 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2008 witnessed activity that was about 160 percent of the average season.

According to the team, the climate factors they’re currently seeing are similar to conditions that occurred during 1957, 1963, 1965, and 2002 seasons. The average of these four seasons had slightly below-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2009 season will be in line with the average of these five years.

Still, despite the reduced forecast, Gray and Klotzbach advise coastal residents not to change their hurricane preparedness measures since major hurricanes can devastate coastal communities in less active seasons.

"It just takes one storm to have a bad year," added Mark Walters, who heads the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency.

Walters urged residents to develop a hurricane plan that fits their family, which includes stocking up on necessities for at least 72 hours or more if the family situation warrants it.

This means getting in canned goods and a working an opener, laying in a supply of water, having cash on hand, and keeping an eye on the level of fuel in vehicles.

Walters urged residents to clean up the debris around their yards so it doesn’t become a projectile should storm hit. And he said it was important to make sure their generators are working.

Walters referred residents to the Federal Emergency Management Agency website to make sure they’re up to snuff on what to do when a hurricane or other emergency hits.

Storm names for this season are Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda.

Klotzbach and Gray’s forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions — such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures — that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

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