April 3, 2007 — Look for a busy hurricane season in 2007, but not as bad as 2004 and the record-setting 2005, the Colorado State University hurricane prediction team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said Tuesday.
The team upped its December prediction to 17 named storms. They predict that nine of those 17 will become hurricanes, with five of the nine growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more.
In December, the numbers came in at 14, seven and three.
Klotzbach said that El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific, which lessen hurricane activity in the Atlantic, rapidly dissipated as winter wound down.
"So, we do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year. Also, we have warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year, which we've seen just about every year since 1995," Klotzbach said in a news release.
The year 1995 had above-average hurricane activity, a fact some V.I. residents know all too well. That was the year that Hurricane Marilyn slammed into the territory, causing widespread devastation.
While the team doesn't predict the probability of a hurricane hitting somewhere in the Caribbean, which it does for the mainland, they did say that there was an above-average chance of a Caribbean island getting hit.
Klotzbach said that in 2007 hurricane activity should reach 185 percent of the normal long-term average. By comparison, 2005, the year Katrina devastated New Orleans, had about 275 percent of the long-term average.
The long-term average stands at 9.6 named storms, with 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, but activity usually ramps up in August. The peak comes in mid-September. However, hurricanes can come at any time and early-season ones have hit the Virgin Islands, so it pays to be prepared.
With less than two months left until the official start of hurricane season, local officials offered some advice.
"Get your hurricane supplies ready," V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency acting Director Steve Parris said Tuesday.
He said residents should start buying nonperishable food items and water a little at a time until they have enough on hand. This bit-by-bit approach reduces the stress on the pocketbook.
Rafe Boulon at V.I. National Park on St. John, urged boaters to begin their plans to move their boats to Hurricane Hole when a hurricane threatens.
"They need to protect their homes or businesses, or whatever they use their vessels for," he said.
As in previous years, boaters will have to sign up for moorings in Hurricane Hole. Boulon said that the park in May will expand the existing hurricane mooring chain system, so the sign-up date for spots may be delayed a week beyond the usual first Saturday in June registration day.
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